Atoms for Peace?

This was posted as my July 2008 op-ed at Modern Republic:

Atoms For Peace?

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency – IAEA – there are 439 nuclear power plants currently operating in 30 countries around the globe. There are an additional 34 plants actively under construction – most of them in developing countries. John McCain, the Republican nominee for President, called for the construction of 45 new plants here in the United States by 2030. This represents an increase of almost 50% in number of plants in the US, given that there are 104 plants in operation here. This, even though the US hasn’t built a new reactor in about 30 years.

Again, according the IAEA, worldwide, nuclear power-generated electricity accounts for roughly 15% of the worlds’ electricity consumption. In France, 78% of their electricity is generated by nuclear power; in the United States, that figure is about 20%.

Last July, at the 6th Congress on Science and Technology for Development that took place in Bangkok, Thailand, the IAEA Director General Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, addressed “why we are witnessing a resurgence of interest in nuclear power.” He claimed three broad interests driving this resurgence:

- Energy diversity and security: Nations are more and more concerned for a steady, reliable source of energy, given that energy demands continue to increase around the globe, and the unstable future of fossil fuels becomes more pronounced

- Carbon emissions and environmental concerns: Greenhouse gases effect everyone, everywhere, and nations are coming together to do what they can to limit, and hopefully decrease, these gases for the sake of everyone

- Strong performance of the nuclear industry: ElBaradei states that “nuclear power is a mature technology” and it has a “strong performance record”

He also stressed, though, that for this resurgence to last, a set of concerns must be addressed:

- Safety
- Security
- Waste
- Non-proliferation
- Technological innovation
- Infrastructure
- Public perception

The IAEA website and materials present a measured, but nonetheless hopeful picture of nuclear power in the world of 2008. But clearly the Agency understands what is at stake, and what the challenges to any resurgence are. So does Walter Patterson. He is trained as a nuclear physicist, and is a Fellow of Energy, Environment, and Development Programme at Chatham House, at the Energy Institute, London, and visiting Fellow at the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex. Referring to just one of the list of challenges, Patterson remarks that “Nuclear energy needs climate change a lot more than climate change needs nuclear energy.”

Patterson would be a formidable instance of another of the challenges, namely, “public perception.” Actually, one aspect of Patterson’s perception is something that isn’t really fleshed out in the IAEA list above: cost. Patterson argues that the technology is half a century old – which the IAEA Director General regards as a measure of stability – and further, that it was developed for weapons and submarine propulsion, and is inappropriate for large-scale civil power generation. Nuclear power promoters are thus forced to deliver a “deeply dishonest sales pitch.”

“The promoters have nevertheless a decades-long commitment to this technology. However, they understand the risks all too well. That's why they are waiting for governments to provide - yet again – financial safety nets against all the various liabilities that may - and on the historical evidence almost certainly will - arise. Unless and until governments, that is, taxpayers, indemnify the promoters against these open-ended risks, no private capital will finance new nuclear plants anywhere.”

Whether this is true the world over – that private capital won’t finance new construction – it is certainly true that nuclear energy is still significantly subsidized by the world’s governments. In Canada, for instance, Bruce Power in Ontario currently leases their facilities, though they do plan to invest in bringing currently off-line units online. Nevertheless, they claim to be “Canada’s first private nuclear generating company.”

The resurgence of interest in nuclear power is real: new plants are being built, de-commissioned units have come back online, more units are being planned and designed. Oil prices continue to climb. Much of the Middle East, home to much of that oil, suffers under civil and regional wars and unrest, and political and economic instability. Global climate change is real, too: glaciers are melting, Arctic summer ice pack is rapidly declining, sea levels are rising. There are many good reasons to seek out clean, economical, safe, secure sources of energy.