Demographic Winter, Blindness, and Hope
[One of my op-eds at Modern Republic]
The term “demographic winter” refers to the deepening chill creeping across our planet as birthrates decline, fewer and fewer children are born, cultures die out. Many nations are concerned about this trend. Italy, for instance, legislated monetary compensation to couples having children. Other nations have enacted similar measures.
There are also religious groups gravely concerned with the downward trend. The Catholic Church is concerned, as far as I can make out, because this trend underlines what the Church has been saying for quite some time: Modern life is out of balance, evidenced in abortion, feminism, and hedonism – all of which are seen by the Church as various causes of the overall downward trend of childbearing.
I have only recently begun reading about the phenomenon of "demographic winter", but almost my first question was - and is still, as I read more: Are 6,000,000,000 human beings on the earth not enough? In the United Nations document “World Population Policies 2007”, in the Summary and Conclusions, it is stated:
“In developing countries, and especially in Africa, an increasing number of Governments consider that both population growth and fertility are too high and have implemented measures to lower them.”
In fact, according to the UN 2003 document “The World Population in 2300: Executive Summary”, world population is predicted according to five different scenarios. According to those scenarios, from lowest to highest estimates, in the year 2300 - three hundred years from now - world population will be 2.3 billion, 8.3 billion, 9 billion, 36.4 billion, and 134 trillion (Yes! Trillion!).
Of the last scenario, the report states:
"If, for the sake of illustration, the fertility of countries is kept constant at 1995-2000 levels, the world population soars to 244 billion by 2150 and 134 trillion in 2300, a definitely impossible outcome."
It is not the case that the birthrate is decreasing planet-wide.
So what is the concern then? In an online article at LifeIssues.net, Steven Mosher confirms my suspicion that it is not the human family that is the concern for some, but rather the European human family, when he ends his article:
"Much is at stake. For as Europe goes, so goes much of the world."
And what does the future hold for Europe? Those same five UN scenarios predict these possible European population figures: 90, 200, 538, 611, and 2,204. Only one scenario predicts that Europe’s current population of 728 million will increase; in every other scenario it continues to decline.
Of this decline, Mr. Mosher states:
“Islamic jihad and ‘global warming’ are often presented as the most dangerous threats to the Western world today, yet they pale in comparison to the demographic crisis since, of course, without people, nothing else matters.”
And again he writes:
"Great Britain has already succumbed to the deadly malaise that has gripped postmodern, post-Christian Europe. The birthrate is at historic lows, as is church attendance. Many of the children you see on the streets of London are of Pakistani descent."
This is not to single out Steven Mosher. In fact, in everything I’ve read by those who express some degree of panic over the situation, I keep finding myself asking the question: Aren’t Pakistanis, aren’t non-Europeans – or non-Christians – humans? Don’t they count? Why do Mosher and others who are so distraught over the declining birth rates in Western nations not see the fallacy of the explicit premise that Western nations = The World?
The truth is, we are all human; the human birth rate is not declining overall. Therefore the only important question is, Why is the birthrate declining in some populations and not others, and should this be a concern to the human family as a whole?
I think part of the answer does actually appear in the writings I’ve been referring to. Mosher quotes Pope Benedict in Canada as saying that the declining birthrate is due to a mentality that lacks hope.
“This disturbing testimony to uncertainty and fear, even if not always conscious, is in stark contrast with the definitive experience of true love which by its nature is marked by trust, seeks the good of the beloved, and looks to the eternal.”
This could very well be true.
The term “demographic winter” refers to the deepening chill creeping across our planet as birthrates decline, fewer and fewer children are born, cultures die out. Many nations are concerned about this trend. Italy, for instance, legislated monetary compensation to couples having children. Other nations have enacted similar measures.
There are also religious groups gravely concerned with the downward trend. The Catholic Church is concerned, as far as I can make out, because this trend underlines what the Church has been saying for quite some time: Modern life is out of balance, evidenced in abortion, feminism, and hedonism – all of which are seen by the Church as various causes of the overall downward trend of childbearing.
I have only recently begun reading about the phenomenon of "demographic winter", but almost my first question was - and is still, as I read more: Are 6,000,000,000 human beings on the earth not enough? In the United Nations document “World Population Policies 2007”, in the Summary and Conclusions, it is stated:
“In developing countries, and especially in Africa, an increasing number of Governments consider that both population growth and fertility are too high and have implemented measures to lower them.”
In fact, according to the UN 2003 document “The World Population in 2300: Executive Summary”, world population is predicted according to five different scenarios. According to those scenarios, from lowest to highest estimates, in the year 2300 - three hundred years from now - world population will be 2.3 billion, 8.3 billion, 9 billion, 36.4 billion, and 134 trillion (Yes! Trillion!).
Of the last scenario, the report states:
"If, for the sake of illustration, the fertility of countries is kept constant at 1995-2000 levels, the world population soars to 244 billion by 2150 and 134 trillion in 2300, a definitely impossible outcome."
It is not the case that the birthrate is decreasing planet-wide.
So what is the concern then? In an online article at LifeIssues.net, Steven Mosher confirms my suspicion that it is not the human family that is the concern for some, but rather the European human family, when he ends his article:
"Much is at stake. For as Europe goes, so goes much of the world."
And what does the future hold for Europe? Those same five UN scenarios predict these possible European population figures: 90, 200, 538, 611, and 2,204. Only one scenario predicts that Europe’s current population of 728 million will increase; in every other scenario it continues to decline.
Of this decline, Mr. Mosher states:
“Islamic jihad and ‘global warming’ are often presented as the most dangerous threats to the Western world today, yet they pale in comparison to the demographic crisis since, of course, without people, nothing else matters.”
And again he writes:
"Great Britain has already succumbed to the deadly malaise that has gripped postmodern, post-Christian Europe. The birthrate is at historic lows, as is church attendance. Many of the children you see on the streets of London are of Pakistani descent."
This is not to single out Steven Mosher. In fact, in everything I’ve read by those who express some degree of panic over the situation, I keep finding myself asking the question: Aren’t Pakistanis, aren’t non-Europeans – or non-Christians – humans? Don’t they count? Why do Mosher and others who are so distraught over the declining birth rates in Western nations not see the fallacy of the explicit premise that Western nations = The World?
The truth is, we are all human; the human birth rate is not declining overall. Therefore the only important question is, Why is the birthrate declining in some populations and not others, and should this be a concern to the human family as a whole?
I think part of the answer does actually appear in the writings I’ve been referring to. Mosher quotes Pope Benedict in Canada as saying that the declining birthrate is due to a mentality that lacks hope.
“This disturbing testimony to uncertainty and fear, even if not always conscious, is in stark contrast with the definitive experience of true love which by its nature is marked by trust, seeks the good of the beloved, and looks to the eternal.”
This could very well be true.
Comments
I don't have the materials in front of me, but I recall reading, the the Whole Earth days, an extensive, world-wide survey that indicated that as hope *increased* for people, in that their living standards, their health and quality of life increased, the birthrates declined substantially.
I can't say as I trust the Pope not to have an agenda - such as large, subservient, donating poplulations, for whom *he* is the hope.
This is the man who said the American Indians were lucky to have been conquered; that they had been "longing for it" for 500 years.